Deeper Thoughts
Remember to keep your head on straight during these surreal days. – September 16th, 2020

Issue #41: Remember to keep your head on straight during these surreal days.

The 30-year average mortgage rate for a 30-year mortgage is 2.86% right now, according to Freddie Mac.

Two. Point. Eight. Six!

Those who were around the industry in the 1980’s talk of average mortgage rates closer to 15%. Never mind the rest of the jaw-dropping events taking place around our world. We’ve never seen an interest rate like this before. And, at this point, who knows how low it could go? It’s hard to believe it’s true.

Like many of you, we’ve been blessed with a strong quarter (and year) in spite of the continuing world pandemic. The mortgage industry has not only survived but thrived. Refinance numbers are mirroring those of the early 2000’s—which many thought we’d never see again. And, even better, most forecasts suggest our industry will stay strong into 2021—even when the refinance sector inevitably slows (it has to at SOME point, right?).

My “deeper thought” for this week is not another call to use the “up-cycles” or market surges to invest in new or better systems. I’ve said that before, and likely will again. But it is a call, at the strategic level, for all of us to keep our heads. I’m really not trying to be a downer. I’m benefiting from this tidal wave of business too! But I’m also doing my best to prepare for any number of possibilities in the near future. Will there be a default spike? Some say so. Some disagree. Will the refinance boom go on into perpetuity? Some seem to think it will! Are we due for a true purchase market? A tighter market in general?

Listening to prognosticators, experts and forecasters is generally a smart move (and entertaining too). But I don’t set my watch (or my business plan) by them, either. I’m not sure what 2021 will bring. But I’m not going off the deep end in the expectation this surreal spike will continue indefinitely. Nor am I putting my profits into gold investments and scaling back in anticipation of the end-of-the-world. Instead, I’m doing what most would consider Good Business 101. I’m keeping my wits about me; taking informed, measured risks that could result in cost savings or maximized profit down the road and, above all, investing in my team. Not just ramping up with frontline personnel to be axed when the next downcycle comes, but, instead, investing in common sense training, advancement and tools that help them do their jobs better. These are things that will both help me avoid leaving revenue on the table and mitigate the circumstances if and when the market does change.

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