“Life is not about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving.”

—Rocky Balboa

You’ll find these words of wisdom inscribed on the Rocky statue in Philadelphia. It’s one of my favorite movie quotes. And, of course, as a Philadelphia resident, I’m almost certain I’m required by law to mention Rocky at some point in my content, right?  Actually, I’d often bike to that statue during the pandemic or other challenging times. It helped me clear my mind and refocus a bit. Oh, and realize that maybe, just maybe, the latest challenge could be overcome, eventually, too. You just have to be standing when the next opportunity arrives.

From the Super Bowl to the current down cycle

I thought about this as I watched my hometown Eagles (to be honest, I’m a Patriots fan…but I feel for my fellow Philadelphians) suffer a last-second loss in the Super Bowl. Tough loss. Best team in the NFC. All of that work, the championship within their grasp…all for naught thanks to a game ending field goal. Ah well. There’s always next year, right?

Now, in the grand scheme of things, while losing a Super Bowl might be tough and emotionally draining, there are millions (if not billions) of people who have experienced worse circumstances. Regardless, it brought my favorite quote to mind. And I applied it to, yep, you guessed it, the mortgage industry.

Let’s be honest. The mortgage and real estate industry has taken a few hard hits in the past six months. They’ve been a little tougher to take coming on the heels of 2021’s record performance. It’s been a hard left turn. Thousands have lost their jobs while faced with record inflation. Dozens, maybe hundreds, of related businesses have gone out of business. More than a few are hanging on for dear life. While I’ve written about making the most of the opportunities that are available right now, it would be foolish to suggest that we all prefer cycles where there’s more revenue coming in. Hard stop.

Signs of recovery starting to appear

And yet…

There are signs that this down cycle, too, will not be permanent. Some of the industry’s best and brightest are starting to suggest that the market will return to some level of stability this year. Whether that comes to pass this year; or early next…or in 2025…it will end. That’s the nature of our industry. And when it does, at least in the initial stages,  there will be fewer participants in the space to capture the rising levels of revenue. We just have to be there when it happens. 

If you are one of those businesses that’s just hanging in, be strong. And keep moving. People will always need housing, and this too—as tough as it’s been—may soon be over. 

See you at ICE Experience 2023?

By the way, if you’ve been living under a rock, you may not know that the ICE Experience 2023 is coming (February 27 –March 1). This is easily one of the best, and best-attended, conferences of the year, and we’re excited to be there to visit with old friends and partners; maybe meet some new folks as well. Hopefully, we’ll see you there. We’re at booth 711.

We at LodeStar are grateful to all of our clients, friends and colleagues who take the time to view Deeper Thoughts. Please consider having a look as well at some of our other great content, including our podcast, “LodeStar’s Lending Leaders,” and “A Tale of Two Mortgages: an original webcomic for the mortgage industry, presented by LodeStar.”  As always, your feedback is welcomed and appreciated!